A US-Taliban peace deal may be on the way. But it could easily fall apart.

“Talking to the Taliban is a waste of time,” said one former general.

America’s nearly two-decade war in Afghanistan may finally be drawing to a close.

After six days of negotiations in Qatar last week, the United States and the Taliban, the country’s Islamic insurgent group, have reportedly agreed on the outline of a long-sought deal which would allow US and foreign troops to leave the country, perhaps within 18 months.

If true, this would officially kickstart the end to Washington’s involvement in Afghanistan, and likely hand much of the country back to the Taliban — a group which has outlasted the efforts of three US presidents to destroy it.

On Monday, the Trump administration’s envoy for the peace talks, Zalmay Khalilzad, told the New York Times that “[w]e have a draft of the framework that has to be fleshed out before it becomes an agreement.”

That framework as it stands now looks like this: The Taliban, which controlled Afghanistan and harbored al-Qaeda prior to the September 11 attacks, would promise never to allow a terrorist organization to operate in the country again. In return, at least some US troops would leave the country after the Taliban agrees to a ceasefire and engages in talks with the Afghan government.

That’s a potential problem: The Taliban has for years refused to engage with Kabul, but also hinted that it might do so only after foreign troops leave the country.

Asked about Khalilzad’s comments to the Times and other similar reports, a State Department spokesperson told me that “[w]hile discussions were positive, the talks concluded without an agreement.”

“Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” the spokesperson added.

Still, some experts I spoke with called the tentative outline a “breakthrough” and “tremendously good news” — and it is, to a certain extent. It’s the first, and possibly best, chance for the US to establish a semblance of peace between the US-backed government in Kabul and the Taliban so American troops can come home. 

What both champions and critics of the US-Taliban talks told me, though, is that there’s still a long way to go before a final deal is within reach. “There’s at least five or six moving pieces here,” Jason Campbell, who led the Pentagon’s Afghanistan peace talk efforts from June 2016 to September 2018 and now at the RAND Corporation, told me. “If one goes wrong, you’re back to square one. -Read More

A US-Taliban peace deal for Afghanistan in works, but could fall apart ...