Anthony H. Cordesman - The Reality Beyond Zero and 10,000: Choosing a Meaningful Option in Afghanistan --- The United States needs to address the war in far more depth, with far more honesty and transparency, and make hard decisions about the cost-benefits of staying in Afghanistan. It also lacks the time to skim over it in a state of Panglossian indifference. The United States must be ready for the time almost all U.S. and allied forces leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014, and ready to deal with the economic consequences of major cuts in military spending and all forms of aid. -- This does not mean setting artificial deadlines. The Administration has already had enough problems in this regard. Before the President spoke, the Administration had said since late 2011 that the United States needed quick Afghan agreement to a bilateral security agreement in order to plan for an effective transition in Afghanistan. The day after the State of the Union address, however, the Administration was giving background briefings indicating that the United States planned to keep enough troops in place so that it could still carry out an effective transition plan after the Afghan national election in April 2014. -- The fact remains, however, that time is running out to decide on what conditions the United States must set for staying, for shaping an integrated civil military plan that will allow the Administration to make a suitable FY2015 budget request to Congress, decide what facilities and service it needs to keep in Afghanistan, and plan personnel reduction in a way that ensures that the right people are there after most forces leave and Transition becomes a reality. -- Equally important, the Obama Administration needs to make its case for staying based on a serious analysis of the cost-benefits and strategic value of its recommended plan –not repeat another round of strategic clichés and empty rhetoric. It needs to determine whether it has the Congressional and public support it needs. It needs to be sure key allies will join it. It needs to clearly communicate its conditions for staying to the Afghans. And, it needs to be ready to decide whether the Afghan election in April justifies the United States staying, and make it clear that the United States either gets the Afghan terms and support it needs or it will leave. - More, CSIS, at: http://csis.org/publication/reality-beyond-zero-and-10000-choosing-meaningful-option-afghanistan