We Got ISIS Wrong in Syria. Let's Get it Right in Afghanistan. - Franz-Michael Mellbin

Be under no illusion: the Islamic State has arrived in Afghanistan.

Just as the country is gripped by an economic exodus of ordinary people seeking better opportunities elsewhere, ISIS is spreading its tentacles into Afghanistan's most lawless territories in an attempt to establish influence in a region seen as vital to the group's end-game: an Islamic Caliphate.

The first whispers of ISIS activity in Afghanistan emerged exactly one year ago. Initially, it constituted nothing more than media-driven hearsay rather than any actual ground presence; ISIS in Afghanistan was roundly dismissed as a 'virtual reality' organisation.

Even as the first quarter of 2015 passed, the ISIS presence was a 'will-they, won't-they' discussion, with analysts suggesting the group was merely a band of ex-Taliban militants opportunistically rebranding themselves in the hope of coat-tailing on the symbolic capital of the official network in Syria and Iraq.

Yet as the summer months began to heat up, so did the ISIS presence (see video below). Violent clashes with the Taliban ensued, ending questions about possible alliances. The focus on Helmand, a traditional insurgent heartland, shifted to the Pakistan-bordering Nangarhar Province; home to the notorious rat-nest of mountain caves at Tora Bora where Osama Bin Laden and his al Qaeda cronies once evaded coalition forces before slipping silently over the border into Pakistan.

Whether it was inordinate media attention, persistent scaremongering from certain Afghan political elites, or because the group began to achieve gains in some Nangarhar districts, the ISIS threat was upgraded from 'nascent' to 'operationally emergent'. Backed by US drone strikes, Afghan security forces mobilised and eliminated multiple ISIS leaders along with dozens, if not hundreds, of militants. Afghanistan's secret service then 'swept-up' recruiters as the government dispatched representatives to at-risk districts to boost its presence and engage with tribal elders.

An immediate counter-strategy is needed to avoid inevitable high costs if the group is allowed to grow and develop. This requires a deeper understanding of the group's own dynamics; ISIS cannot be effectively countered unless it is understood properly.

Most crucially, we must recognise that models of analysis based on Iraq and Syria will not translate to Afghanistan. Effective responses require an awareness of ISIS aims, strength and capabilities in the Afghan context, where insurgent groups are fertilised by public disaffection with the government. As long as the government remains a better option for the public, then ISIS (or Taliban) support will remain low. - Read More at the  EU Special Representative

We Got ISIS Wrong in Syria. Let's Get it Right in Afghanistan. - Franz-Michael Mellbin