Ghani’s Gambit - Can Afghanistan and Pakistan Ever Get Along? - nytimes

President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan is taking a risk most leaders would shun: He is proposing to improve Afghanistan’s contentious relations with Pakistan in the hope of paving the way toward both peace with the Taliban and regional economic cooperation. Much of the Afghan public is skeptical, because Pakistan has long treated Afghanistan like a client state. Mr. Ghani will need to show results fast.

The U.S. government should do its utmost to support him when he comes to Washington on an official visit next week. For the United States, the stakes are greater than whether President Obama can extract American troops by the end of his term without destabilizing Afghanistan.

Mr. Ghani is hoping the Pakistani government will respond to his efforts by curtailing the military capacity of the Afghan Taliban, whose leaders have sought refuge in Pakistan, and pressing them into entering negotiations with the Afghan government and eventually giving up their armed struggle. The objective is to make the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan more open and more secure and then help “connect South Asia to Central Asia,” as Mr. Ghani put it during his first trip to Pakistan last fall.

“Alone we can strive,” he said, addressing a group of Afghan and Pakistani business leaders, “Together we will thrive, and let’s thrive together.”

Afghanistan and Pakistan have been at odds over borders and other issues since the creation of Pakistan in 1947. But Mr. Ghani’s recent overtures try to address some of Pakistan’s concerns. He has suspended a request by the Afghan government to purchase heavy arms from India, of which Pakistan has long been wary. He has sent Afghan cadets to study at the Pakistani military academy. He has offered Pakistan unprecedented cooperation on military and intelligence matters.

Mr. Ghani has also offered Pakistani investors generous access to Afghanistan, including free industrial zones. In November, the Afghan and Pakistani governments agreed to a detailed list of proposals to promote trade, including the opening of 15 new crossing points along their shared border, even though Afghanistan has long disputed its legitimacy.

When I visited Pakistan last month, I was amazed at the change of attitude expressed by Afghan and Pakistani officials alike. I have worked on the region for over three decades — including as adviser to the U.N. special representative of the secretary general for Afghanistan in 2001 and as adviser to the U.S. State Department’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009-2013 — and it was the first time I heard both sides describe the relationship in hopeful terms. The officials said the Pakistani military had told the senior leaders of the Afghan Taliban living in Pakistan that they had to talk to the Afghan government or lose their freedom to operate in Pakistan.

What’s more, these changes in Afghan-Pakistani relations are occurring against the background of a more favorable regional environment than ever before. The withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan combined with the international community’s continued commitment to assisting the Afghan government, the possibility that tensions between the United States and Iran may ease if a nuclear deal succeeds, and China’s increased engagement with the region all offer the promise of concrete benefits if Afghanistan and Pakistan cooperate with each other.

China, after decades of developing exports from its coastal regions, is investing in its interior and western parts. Linking this landlocked area to foreign markets requires massive investment in infrastructure beyond China. President Xi Jinping is seeking to create a Silk Road Economic Belt through Central Asia, an economic corridor through Pakistan and a maritime Silk Road through the Indian Ocean.  Read More at NYT

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