Afghanistan: Rely on Iran and Pakistan for Help --- Assuming President Karzai will not sign the bilateral security agreement and President Obama makes good on his threat to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, the security situation in Afghanistan will deteriorate rapidly. The Taliban will celebrate and, along with other insurgent groups, will launch attacks against vulnerable targets in small, provincial towns and gradually consolidate their power. -- Kabul and the big cities may be spared large attacks because the Taliban lacks the means for a major operation like the Tet offensive the North Vietnamese carried out in 1968. But even Kabul may not be spared acts of terrorism and assassination like those we have witnessed sporadically in Afghanistan and almost daily in Iraq. There are also warlords who will take advantage of a weaker central government to settle old scores, establish territorial control and seek to increase their weight and influence. -- The United States and its allies, unable to fully end such violence even with a massive military presence, will hardly be able to control it once they leave. The U.S. will have to rely on Iran and Pakistan to contain the Taliban, at least along their borders. If the nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. advances according to plan, the Iranians can use their considerable influence in Afghanistan and with a number of the warlords in a positive way. It will be in Pakistan’s interest, too, to prevent disorder in a neighboring country; and the U.S. should assist it to do so. -- The U.S. can, if necessary, use drones from its air bases in Central Asia to attack Taliban targets in Afghanistan. Lacking troops on the ground, the U.S. must also focus on containment, preventing internal disorder from spilling across Afghanistan’s borders and the export of this violence elsewhere. The U.S. must also help whoever succeeds Karzai as president to set up a government that is representative, committed to the rule of law and free of corruption; and it must remain vigilant against terrorist attacks on the home front.