Thursday, March 27, 2014

Karzai Battles for Legacy After Afghan Vote Next Week --- KABUL—Next week's election to pick a successor to Afghan President Hamid Karzai will also determine how much power the mercurial leader—who has ruled the country since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion—will retain once he leaves office. -- Mr. Karzai has exasperated Washington by declining to sign a security agreement that would allow some U.S. forces to remain in the country after year's end, and by whipping up anti-American sentiment in Afghanistan. -- The U.S. is hoping the next president will be a more reliable partner and quickly sign the security deal—something the major presidential candidates have promised to do. The future U.S.-Afghan relationship, however, depends on whether Mr. Karzai steps away from the limelight or remains the real decision maker in the next administration. -- Surprising many, Mr. Karzai has managed to remain relevant until the very end of his term. His public squabbles with Washington overshadowed much of the election campaign. Now, in the run-up to the April 5 vote, all of the leading candidates acknowledge his influence over the outcome, and some are seeking his blessing. --- "The president has played his role well. He has not become a lame duck," former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, one of the main presidential candidates, said in an interview. "It's a tribute to his immense capability. It's a tribute to his political skills that we are talking about the president's role days before the election." -- The election, if it isn't derailed by Taliban violence or massive fraud, would mark the first democratic transfer of power in Afghanistan's history. A legitimate outcome is crucial to maintaining the billions of dollars in international aid Kabul needs to pay its security forces and keep the economy afloat. -- In addition to Mr. Ghani, the front-runners are Mr. Karzai's former foreign minister, Zalmai Rassoul, seen as the president's favorite, and Abdullah Abdullah, the politician who came in second in the 2009 presidential election and who is the only major candidate to openly criticize the incumbent. -- "The next government, regardless of who will win the election, will be much weaker than this government," said Afghan political analyst Haroun Mir. "President Karzai's role will be prominent. He is certainly an uncontested leader in the south, and he has also built important political links in the north." --- Mr. Karzai isn't allowed to run again by the constitution. But he erected a new residence on the grounds of the presidential palace that he intends to occupy after the election to remain close to his successor. He intensified speculation about his plans by telling parliament last week that he wants unspecified constitutional changes. -- Many Afghans are concerned that Mr. Karzai, at 56, wants to emulate Russian President Vladimir Putin, creating a prime-minister-like position for himself under a weak president, and then returning to full power. -- The Afghan president's spokesman, Aimal Faizi, said that anyone who thinks Mr. Karzai "may follow President Putin's path" is "being misled." He added that Mr. Karzai wants to bring changes into the constitution "based on his experience with the parliament and other state institutions" but has taken no steps so far. -- Though Mr. Karzai hasn't formally endorsed a candidate, he publicly pressured his older brother Qayum to drop out of the race. As a result, Qayum and other Karzai family members have switched their support to Mr. Rassoul. One cartoon making the rounds on Afghan Facebook pages shows Mr. Rassoul as a TV set—with President Karzai holding the remote control. -- A 70-year-old of royal lineage, Mr. Rassoul said in an interview that Mr. Karzai should have a strong say in the country's future. "He kept Afghanistan together. He will be, taking into consideration the Afghan society, a leader in Afghanistan," Mr. Rassoul said. "He will have influence, among people, among tribal chiefs, elders, and I think he will contribute to keep Afghanistan stable." -- When asked whether Mr. Karzai should have a more formal role, Mr. Rassoul demurred. "It will depend on what President Karzai wants to do," he said. "At least to me he never showed any intention. He said: 'I'm tired, I've been in this business at a very difficult time, I'm exhausted, I want to sit home, to read books, I want to write my books and to travel around Afghanistan…' But I am sure he will be involved in Afghan politics." --- Mr. Ghani, a former World Bank executive who ran against Mr. Karzai in 2009 and then served as his transition adviser until entering the presidential race, said he has proposed a more detailed plan to the Afghan president. -- "The president will have a space as a national leader, and there should be an office with budgetary autonomy and staff that allows the president to engage in national, regional and international issues," Mr. Ghani said in an interview. "Were I to be elected, I would seek his advice," he added. - More, WSJ, Yaroslav Trofimov, at: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304679404579459112046631466

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