Analysis: Afghanistan’s road to peace won’t be an easy one, washingtonpost

Is there hope for an end to the long war in Afghanistan? A month ago, President Ashraf Ghani offered the Taliban a “comprehensive peace deal.” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis says the United States is open to a peace settlement in Afghanistan. And some Taliban leaders have expressed an interest in talks, as well.

For now, however, the prospects for peace in Afghanistan remain grim. There are multiple steps to a potential deal — and many barriers to success. Here are five pitfalls on the road to peace.

1) Will the Taliban negotiate?
The Taliban chief, Haibatullah Akhundzada, has not responded to the peace offer. Some analysts are reading his silence as a sign of interest. But it is more likely that he does not want to negotiate. A powerful faction within the Taliban, the Quetta Shura, is not interested in talks.

The silence may reflect the Taliban’s military confidence, which would support fighting instead of negotiations. Scholars highlight two conditions under which rebels remain optimistic about their military prospects: when rebels have state backers who give them sanctuary and material support, and when rebels have access to funding streams from illicit economies.

The Taliban meets both criteria. Its leadership has sanctuary in Pakistan and Iran. It receives material support from Russia. The drug trade and kidnappings continue to provide high earnings. Many in the Taliban’s shura think that they stand a chance to win — and that the United States is out of steam.

The United States has tried to curtail the Taliban’s incentive to fight on, in part by increasing airstrikes against the Taliban’s leadership and drug complex. But there is little evidence that this has significantly harmed the Taliban. Instead, it has increasingly bombed cities, including Kabul.

The United States also suspended military aid to Pakistan to pressure the Islamabad government to stop supporting the Taliban. That has yet to shift Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy. My research (with Paul Staniland and Sameer Lalwani) suggests that Pakistan is unlikely to crack down on the Taliban because of U.S. pressure. The Taliban provides Pakistan with influence in Afghanistan — and does not challenge the Pakistani military’s vision of nationalism.

Bottom line: As long as state backing and illicit funds make the Taliban confident of a victory, there is reason to doubt that it would want to negotiate.

2) What would peace terms look like?
But suppose that the Taliban agrees to talk. The next challenge would be to reach a consensus on peace terms — a key obstacle for most conflict agreements. In Afghanistan, building consensus is tricky, as the terms will be shaped by conflicting interests of the U.S. and Afghan governments, along with the Taliban.

The Taliban’s recent demands include a U.S. exit from Afghanistan and share in the Kabul-based government. The United States seeks guarantees that the Taliban will not support transnational Islamist extremists. The Afghan government wants the Taliban to respect the rule of law.

The Taliban’s demand for a U.S. withdrawal is likely to cause a deadlock. Key Taliban leaders worry that if they back down, their credibility with their base of support will suffer. But it is hard to see President Trump’s hard-line foreign policy team agreeing to a withdrawal as a concession to the Taliban. And the Afghan government has reason to worry about its own survival in case of a rushed U.S. departure.

The Taliban’s demand for a U.S. withdrawal is likely to cause a deadlock. Key Taliban leaders worry that if they back down, their credibility with their base of support will suffer. But it is hard to see President Trump’s hard-line foreign policy team agreeing to a withdrawal as a concession to the Taliban. And the Afghan government has reason to worry about its own survival in case of a rushed U.S. departure. - Read More

Afghanistan’s road to peace won’t be an easy one