Tuesday, January 16, 2018

The President, the Strongman, and the Next U.S. Headache in Afghanistan - nytimes

MAZAR-I-SHARIF, Afghanistan — Atta Muhammad Noor, a strongman who has ruled a prosperous northern Afghan province more like a king than a governor for 13 years, was driving between meetings in Dubai last month when he got the call: President Ashraf Ghani was firing him

For three years, Mr. Ghani had tried to ease Mr. Noor, 54, a commander of the mujahedeen resistance to the Soviets who then became a warlord in the civil war and in the battle against the Taliban, out of his spot as governor of Balkh Province, the country’s commercial hub. Negotiations over a deal that would see Mr. Noor finally leave in return for more government seats for his political party faltered. And when Mr. Noor began meeting with other important regional power brokers who were also critics of the president, Mr. Ghani decided he had finally had enough. He ordered Mr. Noor out.

The Afghan president may have miscalculated.

ince returning to Balkh, not only has Mr. Noor rejected the Afghan president’s firing of him, but he is using his defiance of the American-backed administration in Kabul as a platform to project himself as a player in the presidential elections that are supposed to happen next year.

A regional power’s rejection of the central government has long been seen as a likely test for the heavily centralized but potentially fragile Afghan state set up after 2001.

Now the standoff between Mr. Noor and Mr. Ghani, which has dragged on for almost a month, has become a painfully public test of how far the United States will go to support the Afghan president against a widening, though not united, opposition.

“They were thinking I was the same as the governors they had appointed with a piece of paper and removed with a piece of paper,” Mr. Noor said last week, in an interview with The New York Times in the governor’s office. “I am the operational chief of a strong political party, I am part of a strong coalition, and the people trust me for who I am, for my charisma.”

Mr. Noor said the effort to remove him was tied to political machinations around the presidential elections next year, when Mr. Ghani wants to be re-elected, but it remains unclear how.

“We are a great capacity for votes during elections. They are trying to marginalize us, and we won’t take it quietly,” Mr. Noor said. “If my party and my allies agree, it’s possible that I will be a candidate — as the head of the ticket.”

He added: “I don’t like being No. 2.”

One event that probably contributed to Mr. Noor’s firing happened about two months ago, when fuel trucks contracted by NATO were blocked by his forces in Balkh. Mr. Noor said the trucks were using NATO’s tax-exempt status to import illegal fuel. Some officials, however, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering Mr. Noor and his allies, suggested that the trucks were stopped because they were refusing to pay Mr. Noor’s men a cut.

Afghan officials say the episode angered Gen. John W. Nicholson, the top American commander in Afghanistan. Mr. Ghani’s aides used it in their lobbying against Mr. Noor, arguing that the former warlord was not only against the Afghan president, but also his American allies.

Mr. Noor appeared unconcerned.

“Nicholson should not have gotten upset,” Mr. Noor said. “Nicholson should have called me, like a man, and asked for information on what had happened.

Mr. Noor’s military and political reputation has been deeply tied to his home province for decades, and it has given him deep leverage with both the West and the government in Kabul. About $1.7 billion worth of goods transited through just one of Balkh Province’s ports last year, including fuel contracted by NATO. Mr. Noor is also believed to have armed militias in the north, which Human Rights Watch has accused of extensive abuses.

Over 15 years, Mr. Noor has developed a vast network of businesses and patronagecentered on Balkh and the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, long a center of trade and interaction with Central Asia. Those relationships have brought him and his allies wealth that affords them a lavish lifestyle, but also resources for a network of militia commanders across several provinces. - Moe


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