Younger Saudi Royals Jockey for a Position - WSJ

With Ascension of New King, the Next Generation Moves Closer to Power Than They Have Ever Been in Wealthy Kingdom

In the modern Middle East, few things have been as certain as the succession of Saudi monarchs: Since the death of the founder of the current dynasty, Abdulaziz ibn Saud in 1953, his sons have come after him, each younger than the one before.  So it was with King Abdullah, succeeded within an hour of his death announcement by his younger brother, Salman.

Yet that same announcement brought to the fore a new and historic element of uncertainty when it also named Prince Muqrin, the youngest surviving son of the founder, as crown prince. Now, with the death of either the new king, who is 79 years old, or the new crown prince, 69 years old, the so-called House of Saud will for the first time have to pick a successor from a younger generation of princes. That will establish a whole new line of succession, a potentially disruptive moment for the kingdom at a time when it faces many serious challenges, from domestic pressures for reform to regional challenges to its leadership in the Arab world.

How that generational transition will eventually play out—whether it happens quickly or more gradually—provides much of the drama behind the rapid and seemingly smooth immediate succession.

King Salman is widely expected to continue on the path of slow and steady modernization of the kingdom, with the overriding priority on stability laid out by King Abdullah.

While Saudis will often say in the privacy of their homes that infighting among Abdulaziz’s grandsons and their families is a greater threat to Saudi Arabia’s existing order than popular revolution, the ruling family’s emphasis on order and obedience lowers the likelihood of any power struggle that spills over into civil unrest.

This emphasis on continuity also means shifts in the government’s domestic and foreign policies are expected to be slight. If it lasts, the recent plunge in oil prices and revenues for the kingdom could also create new challenges. Although Saudi Arabia has huge reserves after a decade of record revenues, having embarked on a massive spending program, the government’s finances are on an unsustainable path.   Read More
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