Sunday, February 23, 2014

Putin takes losses on Ukraine, but Russia still has leverage and the will to use it --- KIEV, Ukraine – Russian President Vladimir Putin had a plan for Ukraine, but it all fell apart Friday. -- So he went to Plan B: a mediated, gradual transition of power, a plan that came undone Saturday. -- Big setbacks for the Kremlin? Yes, especially given the way they intruded upon the intended public relations triumph of the Sochi Winter Olympics. But a rout? Not if Putin can help it. -- Revolution in the streets of Kiev is abhorrent to the Russian president, not least for the example it sets. Putin and his advisers have consistently misread Ukrainians’ devotion to their own sovereignty. But Russia still has a lot of leverage in Ukraine and a keen interest in using it. The cards have been reshuffled — so Putin will play the hand he has now been dealt and is unlikely to waste time or energy regretting the ones he lost. -- It is not now in Russia’s interest to keep Ukraine churning, analysts say. -- A Ukraine in continuing turmoil would make a difficult and unpredictable Russian intervention almost inevitable and make it even less likely that the country could ever pay off its huge Russian gas bills. -- “Putin fears chaos,” foreign policy journalist Fyodor Lukyanov wrote in an article published Friday. “The main driving force behind his policy towards Ukraine will be not a desire for expansion, but a desire to reduce the risk of chaos spilling into Russia.” --- “Ukraine is the most important issue on the Russian foreign policy agenda,” she said, and Russia can expect that “the West, particularly Europe, will be too slow, too reluctant” to seize the initiative. - More, Will Englund, Washingtonpost

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