Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election

Americans are usually forgiving when they vote a man into the White House and he wants a second term. Of the last eight elected presidents, all but two — George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter — got their four more years. Which is why the conventional wisdom long held that Barack Obama would most likely weather his midpresidency slump to win another term. - Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election - nytimes